By Brad Wrigley
Well, according to 15th century Western Philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli, "As long as the great majority of men are not deprived of either property or honor, they are satisfied". Dear Niccolo how wonderful to live in a day impervious to the wrath of subprime mortgages, interest rates and stamp duty. There is little question that the home buying equation in the 21st century is a different beast entirely. Whilst Cromwell's key decision may have been how many soldiers where required to take Trim castle in 1649, property buyers must answer the following 3 questions: the Why, the Who and the What before a single sample of Zuber wallpaper is even entertained.
Why Buy Now?
I feel that even now, at a time when relatively high interest rates within Ireland may be jamming the door shut for the heavily mortgage reliant resident purchaser, the door has swung freely open for the opportunist international and the domestic mortgage free/cash rich investor. The secret to success, if you want to call it that, is for the buyer to be in the right place at the right time, and in a position to act expeditiously and aggressively. With a number of shrewd investors already out there snapping up the bargains, time-poor home buyers will be left with the scraps.
There are also two many "glass half empty" organisations publishing reams of doom and gloom on the Irish property market. If an investor has the gift, and the richest ones usually do, to take a step back and have a look at what the current climate is actually telling us it isn't all that bad.
According to TSB/ESRI house prices have declined by 4.7% in the last 12 months. If we look at this in comparison to the 36% drop in the ISEQ general index since last February then this is positive news as far as our clients are concerned. From an investment perspective we are finally seeing a glimpse of realism in what has been an over inflated market for too long to remember. A house should only be worth what a buyer will pay for it and not as much as a vendor demands for it. For investors, this means that a 10-15% bid below asking price must be taken seriously and is a far cry from the bidding wars that regularly took properties 25% above their AMVs 12 months ago.
It's so important to remember that a large number of the wealthy elite in Ireland at present are the home buyer generation from the 80s who bought when the market was at its lowest. The sensible may buy during a bull market but the richest are the bears. In addition some reassurance for the prospective purchaser must come from Michael Hennigan of Finfacts belief that regardless of the bearish sentiment the economy is expected to continue to grow albeit at a much lower level.
Who is investing?
Our Property Finder clientele are from a variety of professions, locations and backgrounds and they are all bestowed the same absolute confidentiality and anonymity. We aim for a very specific market and offer a very exclusive service. Consequently, our clients can be in the public eye or may just wish to keep themselves to themselves.
What we have found though is that up to even 6 months ago there was a growing interest in the higher end of the property market from an international audience. At one stage the demographic was split between the USA, UK and Ireland at 50%, 35% and 15% respectively. Uncertainty in the US economy and the decline of the dollar has halved even the initial enquiries from our American market. My belief for the year ahead is that interest from the UK and from the domestic investor will increase. Renovations and remodelling of high-end property is a great way to add value to a home and we would envisage that many investors will be requesting us to look for these opportunities.
Economic growth here in the past decade has made Ireland one of the most desirable places to live in the world. Long gone are the days of high emigration and, thankfully, expats and their families are returning to this beautiful country. Ireland has so much to offer and improvements to the country's infrastructure mean that more and more families are happy to reside outside of the major cities and commute on a daily basis if necessary. This has, however, increased the demand for properties with designated helicopter pads! Of course, being able to move outside of a major city commuter belt also allows buyers to pick up so much more for their buck.
What's the next step for an investor?
Acquiring a dream property should be an enjoyable process. Every person has different lifestyle aspirations and these should be managed to deliver a very special home at the end of the project. Sometimes this is simply finding the perfect property but sometimes this is redesigning a property to exact requirements.
Of course hiring a property finder is not the best solution for everyone. Curiously this has little to do with additional cost as fees are usually absorbed within the negotiated final purchase price anyway. It is more down to necessity. A buyer looking for 3 bedroom semi within 10 miles of Cork City will find a plethora of options available to them on any of the property search engines. If they are not constrained by time or their location then a few phone calls later should have them viewing that dream home.
However, property finding can be an expensive and energy sapping process for the time poor or international buyer. Giving up your annual vacation or holiday, or even your weekends to trawl estate agents all over Ireland will squeeze the enthusiasm out of even the chirpiest buyer! In these circumstances, a good property finding company will prove both cost efficient and sanity preserving for their Clients.
Regardless of whether an investor or home buyer uses a service such as ours I would always advise buyers to approach any investment remembering that we are in a buyers market. Negotiate hard and do not be afraid to walk away if a property is valued above what you believe it is worth. I think you will be surprised at how many call-backs you receive on a Friday afternoon.
Ireland's leading luxury property finder Brad Wrigley specializes in helping international buyers or renters find their dream home within Ireland. If you want to find out more about how buying or renting a property in Ireland could be perfect for you or your family, book your free no obligation property consultation at www.emeraldhaven.com
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Does the Housing Market Affect Property Flipping Success?
By C Small
Every news story in print these days related to the real estate and housing market seems to predict disaster. Home prices diving, out of this world foreclosure rates, mortgage meltdowns, and stagnating market stories govern the headlines. As a real estate entrepreneur, shouldn't this news keep you awake at night? Shouldn't it make you rethink getting into house flipping in the first place? Shouldn't it cause some serious concerns?
The short answer, to put it frankly, is not really. The housing market should have little to do with your success as a house flipper. Your success as a flipper depends on many things: acquiring undervalued homes; making the right fixes; keeping costs small; making your property the best in its neighborhood; but it does not depend on the market itself.
Why then, are all the house flippers saying the sky is falling and the real estate business is hopeless? Because they aren't in this business with the right mindset. They are speculators, hoping to acquire a property and let the market itself boost its value. When the market stops going up, these speculators unexpectedly experience their profit dry up (or turn into huge debt) and they think the flipping business is over. When the market stops increasing for flippers, it can be a bonus, as the price for buying properties stops going up, making high end homes more affordable, making the market for the less desirable homes more saturated, and providing you with a great vehicle to sell your great home and purchase your fixer upper. The prospects for success can actually go up in a stagnant or declining housing market.
If you are beginning in this business your perspective should be one of creating equity. See your property flip as an opportunity to take something that is not worth much, add something to it, and get it to someone who will pay top dollar. It shouldn't matter that the market itself is not appreciating in value, because you are creating value and equity completely separate and apart from the market!
Remember this any time a naysayer tells you your real estate dreams are farfetched: you don't need market improvement to flourish. All market increases do is enhance your profit margins. All that is required is the right property in the right neighborhood that needs the right fixes. Find those three things and it doesn't matter what the market does, you can be successful.
C Small
Every news story in print these days related to the real estate and housing market seems to predict disaster. Home prices diving, out of this world foreclosure rates, mortgage meltdowns, and stagnating market stories govern the headlines. As a real estate entrepreneur, shouldn't this news keep you awake at night? Shouldn't it make you rethink getting into house flipping in the first place? Shouldn't it cause some serious concerns?
The short answer, to put it frankly, is not really. The housing market should have little to do with your success as a house flipper. Your success as a flipper depends on many things: acquiring undervalued homes; making the right fixes; keeping costs small; making your property the best in its neighborhood; but it does not depend on the market itself.
Why then, are all the house flippers saying the sky is falling and the real estate business is hopeless? Because they aren't in this business with the right mindset. They are speculators, hoping to acquire a property and let the market itself boost its value. When the market stops going up, these speculators unexpectedly experience their profit dry up (or turn into huge debt) and they think the flipping business is over. When the market stops increasing for flippers, it can be a bonus, as the price for buying properties stops going up, making high end homes more affordable, making the market for the less desirable homes more saturated, and providing you with a great vehicle to sell your great home and purchase your fixer upper. The prospects for success can actually go up in a stagnant or declining housing market.
If you are beginning in this business your perspective should be one of creating equity. See your property flip as an opportunity to take something that is not worth much, add something to it, and get it to someone who will pay top dollar. It shouldn't matter that the market itself is not appreciating in value, because you are creating value and equity completely separate and apart from the market!
Remember this any time a naysayer tells you your real estate dreams are farfetched: you don't need market improvement to flourish. All market increases do is enhance your profit margins. All that is required is the right property in the right neighborhood that needs the right fixes. Find those three things and it doesn't matter what the market does, you can be successful.
C Small
Foreclosure Real Estate - What You Need to Know Before Investing
By John Krajewski
Real estate investing isn't just for retirees looking to earn income. The promise of guaranteed earnings and the huge earning potential make REI one of the more popular ventures for many younger folks as well. With REI, the old adage of starting with the end in mind rings very true.
To begin, decide what type of REI you want to do before you ever look at your first house. Are you looking for a property to flip? Are you planning to renovate the property for some other use? Will you rent it out as an income-producing property? What kind of area are you looking to buy in - rural, urban, or suburban? Knowing which direction to head in will save you some time and help you find the professionals and funding that are right for you.
Once you know what type of real estate investment you want to make, start talking to area real estate agents. The right agent will know the market, and be able to offer guidance from an investment perspective. Depending of the type of REI you have chosen, a knowledgeable real estate agent will be able to help you quickly locate properties that fit your needs and your budget. Don't be afraid to let the agents know you are talking to others... REI is a huge money-maker. The promise of commission on a huge sale will be more than enough to make the real estate agents compete for your business.
Once you have an idea of what's out there for the type of real estate investment you want, start shopping around for financing. Have no credit or bad credit? Consider creative financing through private money lenders. PML's are often the funding choice for companies and well established real estate investors. They offer flexible funding terms, and can also put up money fast ... two very important things to keep in mind on deals that must close quickly. Otherwise, talk to banks and other financing companies to find out what's out there. It is best to prequalify for funding before going house hunting. This will prevent headaches later for everyone!
Real estate investing is not as hard as people might have you believe. It does take research and persistence. The income potential is amazing... there are tons of true stories out there of everyday, normal people making thousands of dollars through REI. It is possible, and it can be you. If you do your homework, and master the basics, it won't be long before people are reading your story of excellence and success.
About the Author:
John Krajewski is a 33-year old real estate investor who has spent several years building a successful REI portfolio. After facing and conquering the common REI trials and tribulations that most new investors deal with, John has poured his wealth of valuable information into one amazing e-book: Secrets to Foreclosure Profits. This powerful e-book teaches real estate investors of any level how to profitably invest in foreclosure properties using the insider secrets and little-known tips discovered by John during his direct experience with foreclosure REI. Besides real estate investing, John also enjoys snowboarding, mountain biking, networking with other investors, and spending time with his family. Learn more about John's e-book Secrets to Foreclosure Profits at http://www.4closuresecrets.com
Real estate investing isn't just for retirees looking to earn income. The promise of guaranteed earnings and the huge earning potential make REI one of the more popular ventures for many younger folks as well. With REI, the old adage of starting with the end in mind rings very true.
To begin, decide what type of REI you want to do before you ever look at your first house. Are you looking for a property to flip? Are you planning to renovate the property for some other use? Will you rent it out as an income-producing property? What kind of area are you looking to buy in - rural, urban, or suburban? Knowing which direction to head in will save you some time and help you find the professionals and funding that are right for you.
Once you know what type of real estate investment you want to make, start talking to area real estate agents. The right agent will know the market, and be able to offer guidance from an investment perspective. Depending of the type of REI you have chosen, a knowledgeable real estate agent will be able to help you quickly locate properties that fit your needs and your budget. Don't be afraid to let the agents know you are talking to others... REI is a huge money-maker. The promise of commission on a huge sale will be more than enough to make the real estate agents compete for your business.
Once you have an idea of what's out there for the type of real estate investment you want, start shopping around for financing. Have no credit or bad credit? Consider creative financing through private money lenders. PML's are often the funding choice for companies and well established real estate investors. They offer flexible funding terms, and can also put up money fast ... two very important things to keep in mind on deals that must close quickly. Otherwise, talk to banks and other financing companies to find out what's out there. It is best to prequalify for funding before going house hunting. This will prevent headaches later for everyone!
Real estate investing is not as hard as people might have you believe. It does take research and persistence. The income potential is amazing... there are tons of true stories out there of everyday, normal people making thousands of dollars through REI. It is possible, and it can be you. If you do your homework, and master the basics, it won't be long before people are reading your story of excellence and success.
About the Author:
John Krajewski is a 33-year old real estate investor who has spent several years building a successful REI portfolio. After facing and conquering the common REI trials and tribulations that most new investors deal with, John has poured his wealth of valuable information into one amazing e-book: Secrets to Foreclosure Profits. This powerful e-book teaches real estate investors of any level how to profitably invest in foreclosure properties using the insider secrets and little-known tips discovered by John during his direct experience with foreclosure REI. Besides real estate investing, John also enjoys snowboarding, mountain biking, networking with other investors, and spending time with his family. Learn more about John's e-book Secrets to Foreclosure Profits at http://www.4closuresecrets.com
Tips for Investing in Foreclosed and Real Estate Owned Property
By Simon Volkov
If you play your cards right, investing in foreclosed properties can be a very profitable venture. Although it's not quite as simple as the late-night infomercials lead you to believe, the following tips can help you prepare for what lies ahead.
Before property is labeled "Foreclosed" it must first be placed for sale through a real estate auction. In order to purchase property through the foreclosure auction, individuals must place a minimum bid equal to the amount of the loan balance, along with any other costs associated with the process, such as accrued interest and attorney fees.
Typically, foreclosed real estate is sold "as is". Occasionally, the ex-homeowner may still reside in the home and individuals who purchase the property will have to deal with having them evicted. This is not a pleasant experience, so conduct research on any foreclosed property you are interested in to determine if the home is vacant or occupied.
If your bid is accepted, it will be your responsibility to pay-off any liens and/or back taxes attached to the property. You will also be responsible for taking care of necessary repairs or renovations.
While it is true foreclosed property can yield a good return on your investment, it is imperative you engage in due diligence. Learn as much about the property as possible before placing your bid at auction. Keep in mind much of the real estate placed on the auction block is not worth the amount owed on the note. Therefore, you want to look for properties that do not have tax or creditor liens attached or those in need of extensive repairs or renovations.
If the foreclosed property is not sold through auction, it is returned to the mortgage company, who returns it to the bank. At this point, foreclosed property becomes real estate owned (REO) property.
Once foreclosed real estate becomes bank owned, the mortgage note no longer exists. Generally, the bank will negotiate with lien holders to remove or reduce liens placed against the property. They will also take care of evicting individuals still residing in the home. Occasionally, they will invest in repairs and renovations.
REO properties are frequently listed on bank websites. Included will be the name of the contact person, along with their phone number or e-mail address. Prior to contacting the specialist, thoroughly investigate the property and conduct research on the market value of other homes in the area where the foreclosed home is located.
If possible, obtain estimates to determine the cost of repairs or renovations. If you plan to do the work yourself, determine the length of time it will take to complete the repairs along with the cost of materials.
Keep in mind banks are just like any other business. Their eyes are on the bottom line. If you want a good deal on an REO foreclosed property, make a respectable offer and leave room for negotiation. More often than not, the bank will respond to your original offer with a counter-offer. You may have to submit several counter-offers to obtain the price you want. Be persistent and remember, virtually everything in a real estate transaction is negotiable.
Not every foreclosed property will be a good deal. You will probably have to sort through quite a bit of rubbish in order to find your diamond. But, it can and does happen and there's no reason you can't grab your slice of the real estate pie.
Simon Volkov is a private Real Estate Note Investor in Orange, California. He offers nationwide investment opportunities for serious investors via RSS feed and email subscription. His website provides resources and articles focused on today's real estate market. Subscribe to his free investment opportunities by visiting www.SimonVolkov.com.
If you play your cards right, investing in foreclosed properties can be a very profitable venture. Although it's not quite as simple as the late-night infomercials lead you to believe, the following tips can help you prepare for what lies ahead.
Before property is labeled "Foreclosed" it must first be placed for sale through a real estate auction. In order to purchase property through the foreclosure auction, individuals must place a minimum bid equal to the amount of the loan balance, along with any other costs associated with the process, such as accrued interest and attorney fees.
Typically, foreclosed real estate is sold "as is". Occasionally, the ex-homeowner may still reside in the home and individuals who purchase the property will have to deal with having them evicted. This is not a pleasant experience, so conduct research on any foreclosed property you are interested in to determine if the home is vacant or occupied.
If your bid is accepted, it will be your responsibility to pay-off any liens and/or back taxes attached to the property. You will also be responsible for taking care of necessary repairs or renovations.
While it is true foreclosed property can yield a good return on your investment, it is imperative you engage in due diligence. Learn as much about the property as possible before placing your bid at auction. Keep in mind much of the real estate placed on the auction block is not worth the amount owed on the note. Therefore, you want to look for properties that do not have tax or creditor liens attached or those in need of extensive repairs or renovations.
If the foreclosed property is not sold through auction, it is returned to the mortgage company, who returns it to the bank. At this point, foreclosed property becomes real estate owned (REO) property.
Once foreclosed real estate becomes bank owned, the mortgage note no longer exists. Generally, the bank will negotiate with lien holders to remove or reduce liens placed against the property. They will also take care of evicting individuals still residing in the home. Occasionally, they will invest in repairs and renovations.
REO properties are frequently listed on bank websites. Included will be the name of the contact person, along with their phone number or e-mail address. Prior to contacting the specialist, thoroughly investigate the property and conduct research on the market value of other homes in the area where the foreclosed home is located.
If possible, obtain estimates to determine the cost of repairs or renovations. If you plan to do the work yourself, determine the length of time it will take to complete the repairs along with the cost of materials.
Keep in mind banks are just like any other business. Their eyes are on the bottom line. If you want a good deal on an REO foreclosed property, make a respectable offer and leave room for negotiation. More often than not, the bank will respond to your original offer with a counter-offer. You may have to submit several counter-offers to obtain the price you want. Be persistent and remember, virtually everything in a real estate transaction is negotiable.
Not every foreclosed property will be a good deal. You will probably have to sort through quite a bit of rubbish in order to find your diamond. But, it can and does happen and there's no reason you can't grab your slice of the real estate pie.
Simon Volkov is a private Real Estate Note Investor in Orange, California. He offers nationwide investment opportunities for serious investors via RSS feed and email subscription. His website provides resources and articles focused on today's real estate market. Subscribe to his free investment opportunities by visiting www.SimonVolkov.com.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Income Investing - Why Isn't This Easy?
Steve Selengut
Most people (including myself) would insist that Equity Investing is the most difficult to master. After all, that is the venue for: erratic price fluctuations caused by an endless supply of social, economic, and political variables; the standard Wall Street misinformation, corporate malfeasance, self- serving financial gurus, and product sales persons; a myriad of popular and market moving speculations from IPOs to Option and Margin strategies; thousands of media talk shows and their financial markets' experts. When you think you understand the stock market brother, you are in serious trouble.
But more devastating than everything that has been done to turn Equity Investing into a product shopping mall of some kind, is the bottom-line/market-value brainwashing that has taken the calm, secure, and smiley-faced world of Income Investing and turned it upside down. I get more phone calls and e-mails from confused Income Investors than I ever receive from a simple plunge in Equity prices. Admittedly, very few Equity investors get to that special place, shouting "Eureka!" as they first realize that corrections in the "Shock" Market are every bit as lovable as rallies. But not recognizing that slowly rising interest rates is as much a boon for both fixed and variable Income Investors as it could possibly be a temporary set back for a struggling economy... well, that's just another example of irresponsible investor counter-education from our much too respected enemies in the financial institutions.
Income Investors must learn to hold these truths to be self evident: (1) More interest on your invested dollars is just plain better for you than less income on your invested dollars, and the amount you have allocated to Income Investing should never change because of market factors. (2) A change in the Market Value of the Fixed Income Securities you already own has absolutely no bearing on any assumptions that could possibly be made about the credit worthiness of the issuers of the securities themselves. (3) A change in the Market Value of your Fixed Income holdings will rarely have a negative impact on the regular recurring income that you receive and, after all, you bought these securities for the income in the first place. (4) Buying fixed income securities in a rising interest rate environment has a positive, compounding effect on portfolio yields and, at the same time, plants the seeds for future capital gains as interest rates recede. (5) Many fixed and variable income securities can be added to as interest rates rise both to increase the average yield AND to decrease the average cost of the securities.
Why is this not easy? It's not easy because financial professionals and pseudo-professionals alike won't let it be. If you have a properly designed Investment Portfolio, you must view each segment separately and with an understanding of the purpose of each. Avoid advisors who consider the bottom line market value of such a portfolio as anything other than an "expectation corroborator" (and your just going to have to call me if you don't know what that is). Your portfolio market value should never be a surprise and, more importantly, it should never be looked at as something to be particularly concerned about... at least not immediately. For example, you had to be living in a cave somewhere and smoking something really special to think that your Interest Rate Sensitive (or Investment Grade equity) portfolio would be up in market value from June of 2007 through mid-January of 2008.
You really have to learn to love the simplicity of Income Investing. Interest rate sensitivity is a given (and, by the way, interest rate expectations themselves are sensitive to inflation expectations). Price movements are both predictable and meaningless. We actually have an investment condition that approaches certainty. This is an investment nirvana, people! Don't let those guys in the pinstripes get you confused. Don't panic, don't switch, and don't cry in your beer. Look at the income number on your statement and go "hmmmm" when you see no meaningful change in either direction. (Actually, if you're doing this properly, the year over year Base Income figure should have increased.)
So the recent bad news (all of it) is really good news for investors and yes, just as higher interest rates are actually better than lower ones to a certain extent, so should lower stock prices be welcomed with more smiles than tears. Only those speculators who haven't taken their rally profits are unhappy with corrections... and that is true in both Equity and Income Securities Markets. Dealing with both events at the same time can make your bottom (line) a bit uncomfortable, but only until you recognize that smaller numbers are better for buying and that their larger cousins are best appreciated with sell orders.
During all types of corrections, some investment professionals will play to your fears, encouraging you to cut your losses, and to switch to something else... generally something that is cycling upwards. You don't have losses UNLESS you fall for this switching advice. Don't be pushed into such decisions no matter how smart the arguments seem. All fixed income investments (with the exception of open end Mutual Funds) are created equally and switching just doesn't work. An unhappy investor is Wall Street's best friend, so don't allow interest rate movements in either direction to affect your investment mood.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Most people (including myself) would insist that Equity Investing is the most difficult to master. After all, that is the venue for: erratic price fluctuations caused by an endless supply of social, economic, and political variables; the standard Wall Street misinformation, corporate malfeasance, self- serving financial gurus, and product sales persons; a myriad of popular and market moving speculations from IPOs to Option and Margin strategies; thousands of media talk shows and their financial markets' experts. When you think you understand the stock market brother, you are in serious trouble.
But more devastating than everything that has been done to turn Equity Investing into a product shopping mall of some kind, is the bottom-line/market-value brainwashing that has taken the calm, secure, and smiley-faced world of Income Investing and turned it upside down. I get more phone calls and e-mails from confused Income Investors than I ever receive from a simple plunge in Equity prices. Admittedly, very few Equity investors get to that special place, shouting "Eureka!" as they first realize that corrections in the "Shock" Market are every bit as lovable as rallies. But not recognizing that slowly rising interest rates is as much a boon for both fixed and variable Income Investors as it could possibly be a temporary set back for a struggling economy... well, that's just another example of irresponsible investor counter-education from our much too respected enemies in the financial institutions.
Income Investors must learn to hold these truths to be self evident: (1) More interest on your invested dollars is just plain better for you than less income on your invested dollars, and the amount you have allocated to Income Investing should never change because of market factors. (2) A change in the Market Value of the Fixed Income Securities you already own has absolutely no bearing on any assumptions that could possibly be made about the credit worthiness of the issuers of the securities themselves. (3) A change in the Market Value of your Fixed Income holdings will rarely have a negative impact on the regular recurring income that you receive and, after all, you bought these securities for the income in the first place. (4) Buying fixed income securities in a rising interest rate environment has a positive, compounding effect on portfolio yields and, at the same time, plants the seeds for future capital gains as interest rates recede. (5) Many fixed and variable income securities can be added to as interest rates rise both to increase the average yield AND to decrease the average cost of the securities.
Why is this not easy? It's not easy because financial professionals and pseudo-professionals alike won't let it be. If you have a properly designed Investment Portfolio, you must view each segment separately and with an understanding of the purpose of each. Avoid advisors who consider the bottom line market value of such a portfolio as anything other than an "expectation corroborator" (and your just going to have to call me if you don't know what that is). Your portfolio market value should never be a surprise and, more importantly, it should never be looked at as something to be particularly concerned about... at least not immediately. For example, you had to be living in a cave somewhere and smoking something really special to think that your Interest Rate Sensitive (or Investment Grade equity) portfolio would be up in market value from June of 2007 through mid-January of 2008.
You really have to learn to love the simplicity of Income Investing. Interest rate sensitivity is a given (and, by the way, interest rate expectations themselves are sensitive to inflation expectations). Price movements are both predictable and meaningless. We actually have an investment condition that approaches certainty. This is an investment nirvana, people! Don't let those guys in the pinstripes get you confused. Don't panic, don't switch, and don't cry in your beer. Look at the income number on your statement and go "hmmmm" when you see no meaningful change in either direction. (Actually, if you're doing this properly, the year over year Base Income figure should have increased.)
So the recent bad news (all of it) is really good news for investors and yes, just as higher interest rates are actually better than lower ones to a certain extent, so should lower stock prices be welcomed with more smiles than tears. Only those speculators who haven't taken their rally profits are unhappy with corrections... and that is true in both Equity and Income Securities Markets. Dealing with both events at the same time can make your bottom (line) a bit uncomfortable, but only until you recognize that smaller numbers are better for buying and that their larger cousins are best appreciated with sell orders.
During all types of corrections, some investment professionals will play to your fears, encouraging you to cut your losses, and to switch to something else... generally something that is cycling upwards. You don't have losses UNLESS you fall for this switching advice. Don't be pushed into such decisions no matter how smart the arguments seem. All fixed income investments (with the exception of open end Mutual Funds) are created equally and switching just doesn't work. An unhappy investor is Wall Street's best friend, so don't allow interest rate movements in either direction to affect your investment mood.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
How To Invest Your Money For The Best Possible Returns
Gregg Hall
Have you ever wondered how your mutual funds really work in the hands of your professional investment manager? Although it may not be a good idea for you to handle your mutual funds and other financial investment personally, it would not hurt you to understand some of the basics concepts involved in investment handling.
There are many advantages that you can derive if you understand the basics of the stock market. First, understanding the movement of the stock market will help you determine whether or not your investment will be growing in heaps in the next few years.
Second, it would help you forecast your earning potentials so that you can actually foresee how much you will be earning even after you have retired. To understand what is a stock market, let us first define what is a stock. A stock is a certificate of proportional ownership on a company. Note that big companies have shared ownership, meaning, there are many people, organizations and other corporations who has ownership over it. The shared ownership is facilitated through the distribution of stocks based on the amount invested by the person, organization and other entities over the company. The ownership of stockholders over the company is proportional in the sense that the value and the number of your stocks in a company would determine the degree of ownership you have over the company.
If you own stocks in certain companies, you can actually share in the profits that the company will make over a certain period. Companies usually give out dividends or profit shares to their shareholders at the end of the fiscal year or the calendar year depending on the accounting cycle used by the company. For companies that are really doing well, they sometimes give dividends more than once a year.
This could be very beneficial to shareholders who invest a large sum of money in the form of stocks in the company. Another way for you to earn on the shares of stock that you get from a company, is because the value of shares of stocks tend to appreciate if the company is doing really well. If the company is listed in the stock exchange you could actually cash in your investment for a handsome profit when the value of the stocks appreciate.
Is it possible to really earn a lot of money investing in stocks? There have been many people who got rich investing in the stock market but there are also some who lost their shirt in this venture. You must understand that the stock market could be volatile every now and then. The key here is to be really ahead of the game by keeping close watch of your investments and the movement of the market. Or that would be the job of your professional investment manager.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Have you ever wondered how your mutual funds really work in the hands of your professional investment manager? Although it may not be a good idea for you to handle your mutual funds and other financial investment personally, it would not hurt you to understand some of the basics concepts involved in investment handling.
There are many advantages that you can derive if you understand the basics of the stock market. First, understanding the movement of the stock market will help you determine whether or not your investment will be growing in heaps in the next few years.
Second, it would help you forecast your earning potentials so that you can actually foresee how much you will be earning even after you have retired. To understand what is a stock market, let us first define what is a stock. A stock is a certificate of proportional ownership on a company. Note that big companies have shared ownership, meaning, there are many people, organizations and other corporations who has ownership over it. The shared ownership is facilitated through the distribution of stocks based on the amount invested by the person, organization and other entities over the company. The ownership of stockholders over the company is proportional in the sense that the value and the number of your stocks in a company would determine the degree of ownership you have over the company.
If you own stocks in certain companies, you can actually share in the profits that the company will make over a certain period. Companies usually give out dividends or profit shares to their shareholders at the end of the fiscal year or the calendar year depending on the accounting cycle used by the company. For companies that are really doing well, they sometimes give dividends more than once a year.
This could be very beneficial to shareholders who invest a large sum of money in the form of stocks in the company. Another way for you to earn on the shares of stock that you get from a company, is because the value of shares of stocks tend to appreciate if the company is doing really well. If the company is listed in the stock exchange you could actually cash in your investment for a handsome profit when the value of the stocks appreciate.
Is it possible to really earn a lot of money investing in stocks? There have been many people who got rich investing in the stock market but there are also some who lost their shirt in this venture. You must understand that the stock market could be volatile every now and then. The key here is to be really ahead of the game by keeping close watch of your investments and the movement of the market. Or that would be the job of your professional investment manager.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Calculating Your Investment IQ
Steve Selengut
Stocks, bonds, index funds; averages, recessions, market rallies and corrections; mutual funds, technical analysis, financial statements; commissions, taxes, and discount brokers. Just how much do you know about investing, or perhaps a better question: is there any "know" in the investment vocabulary? So many terms, ideas, and strategies; so little time and money! Here's a list of thirty mostly-true or mostly-false comments for you to kick around with your friends and fellow investment bloggers:
1. Every Properly Diversified Portfolio will have up to 5% of its market value in each of these areas: miscellaneous speculative opportunities, gold or other commodities, small cap stocks, and global index funds.
2. Financial Professionals are well trained in all aspects of investing, investment portfolio design, and management. Consequently, a significant portion of their compensation is tied directly to how well they help their clients develop high quality, properly diversified, and goal directed portfolios.
3. Buy-and-Hold continues to be the proper investment strategy for most individual investors, especially if automatic reinvestment of income is part of the package.
4. It's a better Investment-Income Strategy to buy shorter duration corporate and municipal bonds (rather than higher yielding long-term debt) because the market value doesn't fluctuate as much with anticipated changes in the direction of interest rates, and that is the most important concern with income investing.
5. If an investor can learn to control his own Greed and Fear, he will have a much better chance of investing successfully.
6. Asset Allocation is a strategy used by investors to move assets from weak market sectors to strong ones in order to improve the growth of the Investment Portfolio's bottom line.
7. No Load Mutual Funds are particularly good for investors because the mutual fund company does not charge anything for its services.
8. In the long run, investing in the stock market will assure you of keeping up with Inflation.
9. The proper gauge of your total Investment Portfolio Performance is the change in market value over the course of a calendar year, compared with the change in one of the more respected stock market averages during the same period of time.
10. Quality, Diversification, and Income are considered by many investors to be the three basic principles of investing.
11. Mutual Funds have always been a safer route to long-term investment success than trying to create your own portfolio of individual securities.
12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised solely of investment grade companies, and generally gives a clear indication of what is going on in the stock market.
13. Smart Cash is an integral part of any asset allocation formula because it allows investors to time the market successfully. Professional market timers know precisely when to move into or out of cash in anticipation of the next major directional change in the market.
14. It is a well-known fact that there are certain Core Portfolio Securities that belong in all investment portfolios if long-term success is to be expected.
15. There is no such thing as a freebie on Wall Street.
16. Closed End Mutual Funds (CEFs) are not popular with Wall Street professionals because they are inherently more risky than normal mutual funds.
17. Packaged Investment Products are designed with a sincere concern for the financial well being of the average investor, and are good for everyone.
18. Zero Coupon Bonds are an important part of the fixed income portion of the investment portfolio, especially when retirement is contemplated within five years or so.
19. The second step in every stock purchase should be the establishment of a Stop Loss Order. Such an order assures you that your losses will be limited to a specific percentage of your purchase price.
20. The IGVSI tracks the market value of a small but elite group of New York Stock Exchange equities.
21. The Four Most Important Investment Ideas include: buying only high quality securities, diversifying properly, using discount brokers exclusively, and establishing reasonable profit-taking targets.
22. Profit Takers and Traders hurt the average investor.
23. Investment Grade Value Stocks will be the next red-hot market sector.
24. "Sell your losers and let your profits run" is the essence of sound Investment Management thinking.
25. The November Syndrome is the partial result of the interaction of Wall Street institutional window dressing and the Infernal Revenue Code.
26. It is important that you take your Tax Losses regularly, particularly if you have held the losing position for less than one year.
27. Annuities, particularly Variable Annuities, are perfect investments at retirement both for people of limited resources and for the wealthy.
28. Technical Analysts can predict the future movements of the economy, individual securities, and the stock market with a very high degree of accuracy.
29. Index funds will always beat the market, or market sector, that they are designed to track.
30. The keys to successful investing are Asset Allocation using only two investment buckets: Equity and Income, and the development of realistic expectations about their market value performance.
Investing is as fascinating as it is frantic, as scary as it is exciting, and as intimidating as it is satisfying. But perhaps the most interesting thing about it is how educationally unprepared most individual investors are for the adventure! Books have been written, graduate degrees awarded, and doctoral dissertations presented in most of the topical areas touched upon so glibly above. Most of you will give your seal of approval to too many of the statements. Contact the author to determine your IIQ.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Stocks, bonds, index funds; averages, recessions, market rallies and corrections; mutual funds, technical analysis, financial statements; commissions, taxes, and discount brokers. Just how much do you know about investing, or perhaps a better question: is there any "know" in the investment vocabulary? So many terms, ideas, and strategies; so little time and money! Here's a list of thirty mostly-true or mostly-false comments for you to kick around with your friends and fellow investment bloggers:
1. Every Properly Diversified Portfolio will have up to 5% of its market value in each of these areas: miscellaneous speculative opportunities, gold or other commodities, small cap stocks, and global index funds.
2. Financial Professionals are well trained in all aspects of investing, investment portfolio design, and management. Consequently, a significant portion of their compensation is tied directly to how well they help their clients develop high quality, properly diversified, and goal directed portfolios.
3. Buy-and-Hold continues to be the proper investment strategy for most individual investors, especially if automatic reinvestment of income is part of the package.
4. It's a better Investment-Income Strategy to buy shorter duration corporate and municipal bonds (rather than higher yielding long-term debt) because the market value doesn't fluctuate as much with anticipated changes in the direction of interest rates, and that is the most important concern with income investing.
5. If an investor can learn to control his own Greed and Fear, he will have a much better chance of investing successfully.
6. Asset Allocation is a strategy used by investors to move assets from weak market sectors to strong ones in order to improve the growth of the Investment Portfolio's bottom line.
7. No Load Mutual Funds are particularly good for investors because the mutual fund company does not charge anything for its services.
8. In the long run, investing in the stock market will assure you of keeping up with Inflation.
9. The proper gauge of your total Investment Portfolio Performance is the change in market value over the course of a calendar year, compared with the change in one of the more respected stock market averages during the same period of time.
10. Quality, Diversification, and Income are considered by many investors to be the three basic principles of investing.
11. Mutual Funds have always been a safer route to long-term investment success than trying to create your own portfolio of individual securities.
12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised solely of investment grade companies, and generally gives a clear indication of what is going on in the stock market.
13. Smart Cash is an integral part of any asset allocation formula because it allows investors to time the market successfully. Professional market timers know precisely when to move into or out of cash in anticipation of the next major directional change in the market.
14. It is a well-known fact that there are certain Core Portfolio Securities that belong in all investment portfolios if long-term success is to be expected.
15. There is no such thing as a freebie on Wall Street.
16. Closed End Mutual Funds (CEFs) are not popular with Wall Street professionals because they are inherently more risky than normal mutual funds.
17. Packaged Investment Products are designed with a sincere concern for the financial well being of the average investor, and are good for everyone.
18. Zero Coupon Bonds are an important part of the fixed income portion of the investment portfolio, especially when retirement is contemplated within five years or so.
19. The second step in every stock purchase should be the establishment of a Stop Loss Order. Such an order assures you that your losses will be limited to a specific percentage of your purchase price.
20. The IGVSI tracks the market value of a small but elite group of New York Stock Exchange equities.
21. The Four Most Important Investment Ideas include: buying only high quality securities, diversifying properly, using discount brokers exclusively, and establishing reasonable profit-taking targets.
22. Profit Takers and Traders hurt the average investor.
23. Investment Grade Value Stocks will be the next red-hot market sector.
24. "Sell your losers and let your profits run" is the essence of sound Investment Management thinking.
25. The November Syndrome is the partial result of the interaction of Wall Street institutional window dressing and the Infernal Revenue Code.
26. It is important that you take your Tax Losses regularly, particularly if you have held the losing position for less than one year.
27. Annuities, particularly Variable Annuities, are perfect investments at retirement both for people of limited resources and for the wealthy.
28. Technical Analysts can predict the future movements of the economy, individual securities, and the stock market with a very high degree of accuracy.
29. Index funds will always beat the market, or market sector, that they are designed to track.
30. The keys to successful investing are Asset Allocation using only two investment buckets: Equity and Income, and the development of realistic expectations about their market value performance.
Investing is as fascinating as it is frantic, as scary as it is exciting, and as intimidating as it is satisfying. But perhaps the most interesting thing about it is how educationally unprepared most individual investors are for the adventure! Books have been written, graduate degrees awarded, and doctoral dissertations presented in most of the topical areas touched upon so glibly above. Most of you will give your seal of approval to too many of the statements. Contact the author to determine your IIQ.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Foreclosure Investing - The Pros And Cons Of Investing In Foreclosures
Thomas Bladecki
Investing in foreclosures is no doubt one of the best opportunities to make money in today's economy. As with any type of business venture, there are risks involved. Investing in foreclosed properties offers great opportunity to buy homes significantly under market, but there are some risks such as considerable research, under lying lien problems, long-term carrying costs and several others. If you are willing to take the chance on a property or two you may prosper in the end.
Foreclosed homes can be purchased at several stages. First is the pre-foreclosure phase, then the auction phase and finally the REO phase each of these presents their own set of pros and cons. Familiarize yourself with each of these different types of foreclosures, weigh the pros and cons for each, you may be able to avoid a costly mistakes and headaches through the process of investing in home foreclosures.
Take a look at the possible pros and cons at the various stages of a foreclosure:
Pre-Foreclosure Phase
This is the stage where the homeowner is still in control of the property. Although the loan is in default and the pressure from the lenders is just beginning. The homeowner is usually in a position to sell the property quickly and avoid the foreclosure process all together. This means hue savings and large potential profits for you.
Pros
20-40% discounts on the estimate value
Low or no down payment, due to the built in equity
Research and inspection opportunities
Sales agreements that are flexible
Cons
Home owner may not be reachable
Fierce competition, many investors are trying to buy these type foreclosures
Time to research documents and court filings
Undisclosed or underlying liens against the property
Auction Phase
Possibly the most profitable stage of a foreclosure. Auctioned properties usually offer the best potential profit when buying foreclosures. An auctioned property is sold during a public auction to the highest bidder. If you have done you, research these types of properties are sometimes sold way under market value.
Pros
Greater discounts can be as high as 35-50%
Great ROI, return on investment
Greater potential profit
Cons
Property inspection is generally not available
Postponed auctions mean valuable time lost and research wasted
Large down payments that must be paid at the time of auction
Incomplete research can cost you a lot of money
You may not win the auction at all
REO Phase
An REO occurs when the lender retains the property after the auction phase. If the bids are not high, enough during the auto the lender will bid on the property to seize control and resell it themselves. In most case, the property has no value to the lender until the house sells; in this case, the lender is usually motivated to sell the property fast.
Pros
Discounts of 5-18%
Clear title, free of all liens
Back taxes are up to date
Lenders may do the repairs, or offer additional discounts
Cons
Low ROI, return on investment
Research must be very through
Potential for loss in the end
When investing in real estate, especially in foreclosures there is great risk involved. While the potential to make a substantial profit in foreclosures you need to make sure that, you do your research and fully understand what your risks are. Properties that offer the greatest profit potential are often times the risky investments.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Investing in foreclosures is no doubt one of the best opportunities to make money in today's economy. As with any type of business venture, there are risks involved. Investing in foreclosed properties offers great opportunity to buy homes significantly under market, but there are some risks such as considerable research, under lying lien problems, long-term carrying costs and several others. If you are willing to take the chance on a property or two you may prosper in the end.
Foreclosed homes can be purchased at several stages. First is the pre-foreclosure phase, then the auction phase and finally the REO phase each of these presents their own set of pros and cons. Familiarize yourself with each of these different types of foreclosures, weigh the pros and cons for each, you may be able to avoid a costly mistakes and headaches through the process of investing in home foreclosures.
Take a look at the possible pros and cons at the various stages of a foreclosure:
Pre-Foreclosure Phase
This is the stage where the homeowner is still in control of the property. Although the loan is in default and the pressure from the lenders is just beginning. The homeowner is usually in a position to sell the property quickly and avoid the foreclosure process all together. This means hue savings and large potential profits for you.
Pros
20-40% discounts on the estimate value
Low or no down payment, due to the built in equity
Research and inspection opportunities
Sales agreements that are flexible
Cons
Home owner may not be reachable
Fierce competition, many investors are trying to buy these type foreclosures
Time to research documents and court filings
Undisclosed or underlying liens against the property
Auction Phase
Possibly the most profitable stage of a foreclosure. Auctioned properties usually offer the best potential profit when buying foreclosures. An auctioned property is sold during a public auction to the highest bidder. If you have done you, research these types of properties are sometimes sold way under market value.
Pros
Greater discounts can be as high as 35-50%
Great ROI, return on investment
Greater potential profit
Cons
Property inspection is generally not available
Postponed auctions mean valuable time lost and research wasted
Large down payments that must be paid at the time of auction
Incomplete research can cost you a lot of money
You may not win the auction at all
REO Phase
An REO occurs when the lender retains the property after the auction phase. If the bids are not high, enough during the auto the lender will bid on the property to seize control and resell it themselves. In most case, the property has no value to the lender until the house sells; in this case, the lender is usually motivated to sell the property fast.
Pros
Discounts of 5-18%
Clear title, free of all liens
Back taxes are up to date
Lenders may do the repairs, or offer additional discounts
Cons
Low ROI, return on investment
Research must be very through
Potential for loss in the end
When investing in real estate, especially in foreclosures there is great risk involved. While the potential to make a substantial profit in foreclosures you need to make sure that, you do your research and fully understand what your risks are. Properties that offer the greatest profit potential are often times the risky investments.
Article Source :
http://www.bestmanagementarticles.com
http://investment-management.bestmanagementarticles.com
Friday, October 5, 2007
Contribution to the economy
Small Business is the major job provider in most economies. The top job provider is those with less than 10 employees, and those with 10 or more but less than 20 employees comes in as the second, and those with 20 or more but less than 50 employees comes in as the third.
Sources of funding
Small businesses use several sources available for start-up capital:
* Self-financing by the owner through Cash, equity loan on his or her home, and or other assets.
* Loans from friends or relatives
* Private stock issue
* Forming partnerships
* Angel Investors
* SME finance, including Collateral based lending and Venture capital, given sufficiently sound business venture plans
Some small businesses are further financed through credit card debt - usually a poor choice, given that the interest rate on credit cards is often several times the rate that would be paid on a line of credit or bank loan. Many owners seek a bank loan in the name of their business, however banks will usually insist on a personal guarantee by the business owner. In the United States, the Small Business Administration (SBA) runs several loan programs that may help a small business secure loans. In these programs, the SBA guarantees a portion of the loan to the issuing bank and thus relieves the bank of some of the risk of extending the loan to a small business. The SBA also requires business owners to pledge personal assets and sign as a personal guarantee for the loan.
Ownership equity
At the start of a business, owners put some funding into the business to finance assets. Businesses can be considered for accounting purposes to be sums of liabilities and assets; this is the accounting equation. After liabilities have been accounted for, the positive remainder is deemed the owner's interest in the business. Thus, in accounting terms, ownership equity is the remaining interest in all assets after all liabilities are paid. If valuations placed on assets do not exceed liabilities, negative equity exists.
This definition is helpful when a business is not paying its bills and gets liquidated, wound up, put into receivership or bankruptcy. Then, a series of creditors, ranked in priority sequence, have the first claim on the proceeds (e.g. asset sales), and ownership equity is the last or residual claim against assets, paid only after all other creditors are paid. In such a case, creditors may not get enough money to pay their bills, and nothing is left over to reimburse owners' equity. Thus owners' equity is reduced to zero. Ownership equity is also known as risk capital, liable capital and equity.
When the owners are shareholders, the interest can be called shareholders' equity; the accounting remains the same, although shareholders may allow different priority ranking among themselves by the use of share classes, and options. This complicates both analysis for stock valuation, and accounting.
Equity capital
Equity capital is defined as the amount of capital provided by the company's owner(s). Providing new equity (an "issuance" of new equity) gives the firm new capital and increases owners' equity by the same amount and time needed. An issuance of new shares, to raise new capital, increases shareholders' equity. Formally, owners' equity is also a form of liability, but is deemed separate and different from other liabilities since it is a residual interest, ranked last in the series; equity is generally considered to be an asset.
Market Value of shares
In the stock market, market price per share does not correspond to the equity per share calculated in the accounting statements. Stock valuations, often much higher, are based on other considerations related to the business' operating cashflow, profits and future prospects; some factors are derived from the accounting statements. Thus, there is little or no correlation between the equity seen in financial statements and the stock valuation of the business.
Real Estate equity
Individuals can also use market valuations to calculate equity in real estate. An owner refers to his or her equity in a property as the difference between the market price of a property and the liability attached to the property (mortgage or home equity loan). This is the exact opposite of how equity is considered for accounting purposes.
Sources of funding
Small businesses use several sources available for start-up capital:
* Self-financing by the owner through Cash, equity loan on his or her home, and or other assets.
* Loans from friends or relatives
* Private stock issue
* Forming partnerships
* Angel Investors
* SME finance, including Collateral based lending and Venture capital, given sufficiently sound business venture plans
Some small businesses are further financed through credit card debt - usually a poor choice, given that the interest rate on credit cards is often several times the rate that would be paid on a line of credit or bank loan. Many owners seek a bank loan in the name of their business, however banks will usually insist on a personal guarantee by the business owner. In the United States, the Small Business Administration (SBA) runs several loan programs that may help a small business secure loans. In these programs, the SBA guarantees a portion of the loan to the issuing bank and thus relieves the bank of some of the risk of extending the loan to a small business. The SBA also requires business owners to pledge personal assets and sign as a personal guarantee for the loan.
Ownership equity
At the start of a business, owners put some funding into the business to finance assets. Businesses can be considered for accounting purposes to be sums of liabilities and assets; this is the accounting equation. After liabilities have been accounted for, the positive remainder is deemed the owner's interest in the business. Thus, in accounting terms, ownership equity is the remaining interest in all assets after all liabilities are paid. If valuations placed on assets do not exceed liabilities, negative equity exists.
This definition is helpful when a business is not paying its bills and gets liquidated, wound up, put into receivership or bankruptcy. Then, a series of creditors, ranked in priority sequence, have the first claim on the proceeds (e.g. asset sales), and ownership equity is the last or residual claim against assets, paid only after all other creditors are paid. In such a case, creditors may not get enough money to pay their bills, and nothing is left over to reimburse owners' equity. Thus owners' equity is reduced to zero. Ownership equity is also known as risk capital, liable capital and equity.
When the owners are shareholders, the interest can be called shareholders' equity; the accounting remains the same, although shareholders may allow different priority ranking among themselves by the use of share classes, and options. This complicates both analysis for stock valuation, and accounting.
Equity capital
Equity capital is defined as the amount of capital provided by the company's owner(s). Providing new equity (an "issuance" of new equity) gives the firm new capital and increases owners' equity by the same amount and time needed. An issuance of new shares, to raise new capital, increases shareholders' equity. Formally, owners' equity is also a form of liability, but is deemed separate and different from other liabilities since it is a residual interest, ranked last in the series; equity is generally considered to be an asset.
Market Value of shares
In the stock market, market price per share does not correspond to the equity per share calculated in the accounting statements. Stock valuations, often much higher, are based on other considerations related to the business' operating cashflow, profits and future prospects; some factors are derived from the accounting statements. Thus, there is little or no correlation between the equity seen in financial statements and the stock valuation of the business.
Real Estate equity
Individuals can also use market valuations to calculate equity in real estate. An owner refers to his or her equity in a property as the difference between the market price of a property and the liability attached to the property (mortgage or home equity loan). This is the exact opposite of how equity is considered for accounting purposes.
Small Business
A small business may be defined as a business with a small number of employees. The legal definition of "small" often varies by country and industry, but is generally under 100 employees in the United States while under 50 employees in the European Union (In comparison, the American definition of mid-sized business by the number of employees is generally under 500 while 250 is for that of European Union). These businesses are normally privately owned corporations, partnerships, or sole proprietorships.
However, other methods are also used to classify small companies, such us annual sales (turnover), assets value or net profit (balance sheet), alone or in a mixed definition. These criteria are followed by the European Union, for instance (headcount, turnover and balance sheet totals).
Small businesses are common in many countries, depending on the economic system in operation. Typical examples include: convenience stores, other small shops (such as a bakery or delicatessen), hairdressers, tradesmen, solicitors, lawyers, accountants, restaurants, guest houses, photographers, small-scale manufacturing etc. Small businesses are usually independent.
The smallest businesses, often located in private homes, are called microbusinesses (term used by international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation) or SoHos. The term "mom and pop business" is a common colloquial expression for a single-family operated business with few (or no) employees other than the owners. When judged by the number of employees, the American and the European definitions are the same: under 10 employees.
Advantages of small business
A small business can be started at a very low cost and on a part-time basis. Small business is also well suited to internet marketing because it can be very manageable to serve a niche, something that would have been more difficult prior to the internet revolution which began in the late 1990s.
Adapting to change is crucial in business and particularly small business; not being tied to any bureaucratic inertia, it is typically easier to respond to the marketplace quickly. Small business proprietors tend to be intimate with their customers and clients resulting in greater accountability and responsiveness.
Several organizations provide help for the smallbusines, like Internal Revenue Service in Small Business and Self-Employed One-Stop Resource.
Problems faced by small businesses
Small businesses often face a variety of problems related to their size. A frequent cause of bankruptcy is undercapitalization. This is often a result of poor planning rather than economic conditions[2] - it is common rule of thumb that the entrepreneur should have access to a sum of money at least equal to the projected revenue for the first year of business in addition to his anticipated expenses. For example, if the prospective owner thinks that he will generate $100,000 in revenues in the first year with $150,000 in start-up expenses, then he should have no less than $250,000 available. Failure to provide this level of funding for the company could leave the owner liable for all of the company's debt should he end up in bankruptcy court, under the theory of undercapitalization.
In addition to ensuring that the business has enough capital, the small business owner must also be mindful of gross margin (sales minus variable costs). To break even, the business must be able to reach a level of sales where the gross margin exceeds fixed costs. When they first start out, many small business owners underprice their products to a point where even at their maximum capacity, it would be impossible to break even. The good news is that cost controls or a price increase can often resolve this problem.
In the United States, some of the largest concerns of small business owners are insurance costs (such as liability and health), rising energy costs and taxes. In the United Kingdom and Australia, small business owners tend to be more concerned with excessive governmental red tape.
Another problem for many small businesses is termed the 'Entrepreneurial Myth' or E-Myth. The mythic assumption is that an expert in a given technical field will also be expert at running that kind of business. Additional business management skills are needed to keep a business running smoothly.
Marketing the small business
Common marketing techniques for small business include networking, word of mouth, customer referrals, yellow pages directories, television, radio, outdoor (roadside billboards), print and internet. Electronic media like TV can be quite expensive and is normally intended to create awareness of a product or service.
Many small business owners find internet marketing more affordable. Google AdWords and Yahoo! Search Marketing are two popular options of getting small business products or services in front of motivated Web searchers. Advertising on niche sites can also be effective, but with the long tail of the internet, it can be time intensive to advertise on enough sites to garner an effective reach.
Franchise businesses
Franchising is a way for small business owners to benefit from the economies of scale of the big corporation (franchisor). McDonald's restaurants are an example of a franchise. The small business owner can leverage a strong brand name and purchasing power of the larger company while keeping their own investment affordable. However, some franchisees conclude that they suffer the "worst of both worlds" feeling they are too restricted by corporate mandates and lack true independence. McDonald's has even been sued by franchisees who feel they have been exploited with unreasonable costs for materials (cups, condiments etc.) they are required to purchase from the parent company.
Mom and pop small businesses
In North American English small or micro businesses that are family-owned and family-operated may be termed Mom and pop businesses. People who speak of mom and pop businesses often refer to the unique perspective offered by patronizing a family business. Some encourage the unknown experience of entering a mom and pop establishment over patronizing franchise businesses, which typically offer comparable stores and similar consumer experiences, regardless of location. For example, mom and pop businesses are often highlighted in travel guides, because patronizing a family-owned and operated business allows a traveler to more fully experience and understand the people of another culture.
Small business bankruptcy
When small business fails, the owner may file bankruptcy. In most cases this can be handled through a personal bankruptcy filing. Corporations can file bankruptcy, but if it is out of business and valuable corporate assets are likely to be repossessed by secured creditors there is little advantage to going to the expense of a corporate bankruptcy. Many states offer exemptions for small business assets so they can continue to operate during and after personal bankruptcy. However, corporate assets are normally not exempt, hence it may be more difficult to continue operating an incorporated business if the owner files bankruptcy.
Certification and trust
Building trust with new customers can be a difficult task for a new and establishing business. Some organizations like the Better Business Bureau and the International Charter now offer Small Business Certification, which certifies the quality of the services and goods produced and can encourage new and larger customers. These services may require a few hours of work, but a certification may reassure potential customers. However, the most effective way to earn trust is through customer referrals.
However, other methods are also used to classify small companies, such us annual sales (turnover), assets value or net profit (balance sheet), alone or in a mixed definition. These criteria are followed by the European Union, for instance (headcount, turnover and balance sheet totals).
Small businesses are common in many countries, depending on the economic system in operation. Typical examples include: convenience stores, other small shops (such as a bakery or delicatessen), hairdressers, tradesmen, solicitors, lawyers, accountants, restaurants, guest houses, photographers, small-scale manufacturing etc. Small businesses are usually independent.
The smallest businesses, often located in private homes, are called microbusinesses (term used by international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation) or SoHos. The term "mom and pop business" is a common colloquial expression for a single-family operated business with few (or no) employees other than the owners. When judged by the number of employees, the American and the European definitions are the same: under 10 employees.
Advantages of small business
A small business can be started at a very low cost and on a part-time basis. Small business is also well suited to internet marketing because it can be very manageable to serve a niche, something that would have been more difficult prior to the internet revolution which began in the late 1990s.
Adapting to change is crucial in business and particularly small business; not being tied to any bureaucratic inertia, it is typically easier to respond to the marketplace quickly. Small business proprietors tend to be intimate with their customers and clients resulting in greater accountability and responsiveness.
Several organizations provide help for the smallbusines, like Internal Revenue Service in Small Business and Self-Employed One-Stop Resource.
Problems faced by small businesses
Small businesses often face a variety of problems related to their size. A frequent cause of bankruptcy is undercapitalization. This is often a result of poor planning rather than economic conditions[2] - it is common rule of thumb that the entrepreneur should have access to a sum of money at least equal to the projected revenue for the first year of business in addition to his anticipated expenses. For example, if the prospective owner thinks that he will generate $100,000 in revenues in the first year with $150,000 in start-up expenses, then he should have no less than $250,000 available. Failure to provide this level of funding for the company could leave the owner liable for all of the company's debt should he end up in bankruptcy court, under the theory of undercapitalization.
In addition to ensuring that the business has enough capital, the small business owner must also be mindful of gross margin (sales minus variable costs). To break even, the business must be able to reach a level of sales where the gross margin exceeds fixed costs. When they first start out, many small business owners underprice their products to a point where even at their maximum capacity, it would be impossible to break even. The good news is that cost controls or a price increase can often resolve this problem.
In the United States, some of the largest concerns of small business owners are insurance costs (such as liability and health), rising energy costs and taxes. In the United Kingdom and Australia, small business owners tend to be more concerned with excessive governmental red tape.
Another problem for many small businesses is termed the 'Entrepreneurial Myth' or E-Myth. The mythic assumption is that an expert in a given technical field will also be expert at running that kind of business. Additional business management skills are needed to keep a business running smoothly.
Marketing the small business
Common marketing techniques for small business include networking, word of mouth, customer referrals, yellow pages directories, television, radio, outdoor (roadside billboards), print and internet. Electronic media like TV can be quite expensive and is normally intended to create awareness of a product or service.
Many small business owners find internet marketing more affordable. Google AdWords and Yahoo! Search Marketing are two popular options of getting small business products or services in front of motivated Web searchers. Advertising on niche sites can also be effective, but with the long tail of the internet, it can be time intensive to advertise on enough sites to garner an effective reach.
Franchise businesses
Franchising is a way for small business owners to benefit from the economies of scale of the big corporation (franchisor). McDonald's restaurants are an example of a franchise. The small business owner can leverage a strong brand name and purchasing power of the larger company while keeping their own investment affordable. However, some franchisees conclude that they suffer the "worst of both worlds" feeling they are too restricted by corporate mandates and lack true independence. McDonald's has even been sued by franchisees who feel they have been exploited with unreasonable costs for materials (cups, condiments etc.) they are required to purchase from the parent company.
Mom and pop small businesses
In North American English small or micro businesses that are family-owned and family-operated may be termed Mom and pop businesses. People who speak of mom and pop businesses often refer to the unique perspective offered by patronizing a family business. Some encourage the unknown experience of entering a mom and pop establishment over patronizing franchise businesses, which typically offer comparable stores and similar consumer experiences, regardless of location. For example, mom and pop businesses are often highlighted in travel guides, because patronizing a family-owned and operated business allows a traveler to more fully experience and understand the people of another culture.
Small business bankruptcy
When small business fails, the owner may file bankruptcy. In most cases this can be handled through a personal bankruptcy filing. Corporations can file bankruptcy, but if it is out of business and valuable corporate assets are likely to be repossessed by secured creditors there is little advantage to going to the expense of a corporate bankruptcy. Many states offer exemptions for small business assets so they can continue to operate during and after personal bankruptcy. However, corporate assets are normally not exempt, hence it may be more difficult to continue operating an incorporated business if the owner files bankruptcy.
Certification and trust
Building trust with new customers can be a difficult task for a new and establishing business. Some organizations like the Better Business Bureau and the International Charter now offer Small Business Certification, which certifies the quality of the services and goods produced and can encourage new and larger customers. These services may require a few hours of work, but a certification may reassure potential customers. However, the most effective way to earn trust is through customer referrals.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Stock market crash
A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a significant cross-section of a stock market. Crashes are driven by panic as much as by underlying economic factors. They often follow speculative stock market bubbles.
Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behaviour and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.
There is no numerically-specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987 for example did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese Nikkei bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable c
Mathematical theory of stock market crashes
The mathematical characterisation of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption that stock markets behave according to a random Gaussian or normal distribution is incorrect. Large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted in a normal distribution. Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that there is evidence that the frequency of stock market crashes follow an inverse cubic power law.[2] This and other studies suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Benoît Mandelbrot proposed that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight.[3] A Lévy flight is a random walk which is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five year period.[4] Their conclusion was that stock market returns are more volatile than a Gaussian distribution but less volatile than a Lévy flight.
Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena....
Stock market crashes are social phenomena where external economic events combine with crowd behaviour and psychology in a positive feedback loop where selling by some market participants drives more market participants to sell. Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditions: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where P/E ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.
There is no numerically-specific definition of a crash but the term commonly applies to steep double-digit percentage losses in a stock market index over a period of several days. Crashes are often distinguished from bear markets by panic selling and abrupt, dramatic price declines. Bear markets are periods of declining stock market prices that are measured in months or years. While crashes are often associated with bear markets, they do not necessarily go hand in hand. The crash of 1987 for example did not lead to a bear market. Likewise, the Japanese Nikkei bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable c
Mathematical theory of stock market crashes
The mathematical characterisation of stock market movements has been a subject of intense interest. The conventional assumption that stock markets behave according to a random Gaussian or normal distribution is incorrect. Large movements in prices (i.e. crashes) are much more common than would be predicted in a normal distribution. Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that there is evidence that the frequency of stock market crashes follow an inverse cubic power law.[2] This and other studies suggest that stock market crashes are a sign of self-organized criticality in financial markets. In 1963, Benoît Mandelbrot proposed that instead of following a strict random walk, stock price variations executed a Lévy flight.[3] A Lévy flight is a random walk which is occasionally disrupted by large movements. In 1995, Rosario Mantegna and Gene Stanley analyzed a million records of the S&P 500 market index, calculating the returns over a five year period.[4] Their conclusion was that stock market returns are more volatile than a Gaussian distribution but less volatile than a Lévy flight.
Researchers continue to study this theory, particularly using computer simulation of crowd behaviour, and the applicability of models to reproduce crash-like phenomena....
Market Events
An exaggerated bull market fueled by overconfidence and/or speculation can lead to a stock market bubble. At the other extreme, an exaggerated bear market, that tends to be associated with falling investor confidence and panic selling, can lead to a stock market crash and a recession.
Causes
Both bull and bear markets may be fueled by sound economic considerations and/or by speculation and/or investors' cognitive biases and emotional biases.
Expectations play a large part in financial markets and in the changes from bull to bear environments. More precisely, attention should be paid to reactions to information, chiefly positive surprises and negative surprises. The tendency is for positive surprises to fuel a bull market (when the news continually tends to exceed investor's expectations) and negative surprises tend to feed a bear market (with expectations disappointed). Also, some behavioral finance studies (Richard Thaler) show the role of the underreaction-adjustment-overreaction process in the formation of market trends.
Technical analysis
Many investors and analysts use technical analysis to try to identify whether a market or security is in a bull or bear phase, and to generate trading strategies to exploit the trend. Technical analysts believe that financial markets are cyclical and move in and out of bull and bear market phases regularly.
Etymology
The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" is obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market", while other sources put the first use of the term much earlier, in 1859.[8]
The most common etymology points to London bearskin "jobbers" (brokers),[citation needed] who would sell bearskins before the bears had actually been caught in contradiction of the proverb ne vendez pas la peau de l'ours avant de l’avoir tué ("don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear")—an admonition against over-optimism.[citation needed] By the time of the South Sea Bubble of 1721, the bear was also associated with short selling; jobbers would sell bearskins they did not own in anticipation of falling prices, which would enable them to buy them later for an additional profit.
Some analogies that have been drawn, but are likely false etymologies:
* It relates to the common use of these animals in blood sport, i.e bear-baiting and bull-baiting.
* It refers to the way that the animals attack: a bull attacks with its horns from bottom up; a bear attacks with its paw from above, downward.
* It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are lazy and cautious movers.
* They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the Barings and the Bulstrodes.
* Bears hibernate, while Bulls do not.
* Bears keep their chin up, while Bulls keep their chin down.
* Bear neck points down while Bull's points upwards.
* The word "bull" plays off the market's return's being "full" whereas "bear" alludes to the market's returns being "bare".
Another plausible origin is from the word "bulla" which means bill, or contract. When a market is rising, holders of contracts for future delivery of a commodity see the value of their contract increase. In a falling market, the counterparties--the "bearers" of the commmodity to be delivered, win because they have locked in a price higher than the present for future delivery.
Causes
Both bull and bear markets may be fueled by sound economic considerations and/or by speculation and/or investors' cognitive biases and emotional biases.
Expectations play a large part in financial markets and in the changes from bull to bear environments. More precisely, attention should be paid to reactions to information, chiefly positive surprises and negative surprises. The tendency is for positive surprises to fuel a bull market (when the news continually tends to exceed investor's expectations) and negative surprises tend to feed a bear market (with expectations disappointed). Also, some behavioral finance studies (Richard Thaler) show the role of the underreaction-adjustment-overreaction process in the formation of market trends.
Technical analysis
Many investors and analysts use technical analysis to try to identify whether a market or security is in a bull or bear phase, and to generate trading strategies to exploit the trend. Technical analysts believe that financial markets are cyclical and move in and out of bull and bear market phases regularly.
Etymology
The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" is obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market", while other sources put the first use of the term much earlier, in 1859.[8]
The most common etymology points to London bearskin "jobbers" (brokers),[citation needed] who would sell bearskins before the bears had actually been caught in contradiction of the proverb ne vendez pas la peau de l'ours avant de l’avoir tué ("don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear")—an admonition against over-optimism.[citation needed] By the time of the South Sea Bubble of 1721, the bear was also associated with short selling; jobbers would sell bearskins they did not own in anticipation of falling prices, which would enable them to buy them later for an additional profit.
Some analogies that have been drawn, but are likely false etymologies:
* It relates to the common use of these animals in blood sport, i.e bear-baiting and bull-baiting.
* It refers to the way that the animals attack: a bull attacks with its horns from bottom up; a bear attacks with its paw from above, downward.
* It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are lazy and cautious movers.
* They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the Barings and the Bulstrodes.
* Bears hibernate, while Bulls do not.
* Bears keep their chin up, while Bulls keep their chin down.
* Bear neck points down while Bull's points upwards.
* The word "bull" plays off the market's return's being "full" whereas "bear" alludes to the market's returns being "bare".
Another plausible origin is from the word "bulla" which means bill, or contract. When a market is rising, holders of contracts for future delivery of a commodity see the value of their contract increase. In a falling market, the counterparties--the "bearers" of the commmodity to be delivered, win because they have locked in a price higher than the present for future delivery.
Value investing
Value investing is a style of investment strategy from the so-called "Graham & Dodd" School. Followers of this style, known as value investors, generally buy companies whose shares appear underpriced by some forms of fundamental analysis; these may include shares that are trading at, for example, high dividend yields or low price-to-earning or price-to-book ratios.
The main proponents of value investing, such as Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, have argued that the essence of value investing is buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value. The discount of the market price to the intrinsic value is what Benjamin Graham called the "margin of safety". The intrinsic value is the discounted value of all future distributions.
However, the future distributions and the appropriate discount rate can only be assumptions. Warren Buffett has taken the value investing concept even further as his thinking has evolved to where for the last 25 years or so his focus has been on "finding an outstanding company at a sensible price" rather than generic companies at a bargain price, this concept is important as you are actually buying into a business.
History
Benjamin Graham
Value investing was established by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, both professors at Columbia University and teachers of many famous investors. In Graham's book The Intelligent Investor, he advocated the important concept of margin of safety — first introduced in Security Analysis, a 1934 book he coauthored with David Dodd — which calls for a cautious approach to investing. In terms of picking stocks, he recommended defensive investment in stocks trading below their tangible book value as a safeguard to adverse future developments often encountered in the stock market.
Further evolution
However, the concept of value (as well as "book value") has evolved significantly since the 1970s. Book value is most useful in industries where most assets are tangible. Intangible assets such as patents, software, brands, or goodwill are difficult to quantify, and may not survive the break-up of a company. When an industry is going through fast technological advancements, the value of its assets is not easily estimated. Sometimes, the production power of an asset can be significantly reduced due to competitive disruptive innovation and therefore its value can suffer permanent impairment. One good example of decreasing asset value is a personal computer. An example of where book value does not mean much is the service and retail sectors. One modern model of calculating value is the discounted cash flow model (DCF). The value of an asset is the sum of its future cash flows, discounted back to the present.
Value Investing Performance
Performance, value strategies
Value investing has proven to be a successful investment strategy. There are several ways to evaluate its success. One way is to examine the performance of simple value strategies, such as buying low PE ratio stocks, low price-to-cash-flow ratio stocks, or low price-to-book ratio stocks. Numerous academics have published studies investigating the effects of buying value stocks. These studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole.
Performance, value investors
Another way to examine the performance of value investing strategies is to examine the investing performance of well-known value investors. Simply examining the performance of the best known value investors would not be instructive, because investors do not become well known unless they are successful. This introduces a selection bias. A better way to investigate the performance of a group of value investors was suggested by Warren Buffett, in his May 17, 1984 speech that was published as The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville. In this speech, Buffett examined the performance of those investors who worked at Graham-Newman Corporation and were thus most influenced by Benjamin Graham. Buffett's conclusion is identical to that of the academic research on simple value investing strategies--value investing is, on average, successful in the long run.
During about a 25-year period (1965-90), published research and articles in leading journals of the value ilk were few. Warren Buffett once commented, "You couldn't advance in a finance department in this country unless you thought that the world was flat."[5]
Well Known Value Investors
Benjamin Graham is regarded by many to be the father of value investing. Along with David Dodd, he wrote Security Analysis, first published in 1934. The most lasting contribution of this book to the field of security analysis was to emphasize the quantifiable aspects of security analysis (such as the evaluations of earnings and book value) while minimizing the importance of more qualitative factors such as the quality of a company's management. Graham later wrote The Intelligent Investor, a book that brought value investing to individual investors. Aside from Buffett, many of Graham's other students, such as William J. Ruane, Irving Kahn and Charles Brandes have gone on to become successful investors in their own right.
Graham's most famous student, however, was Warren Buffett, who ran successful investing partnerships before closing them in 1969 to focus on running Berkshire Hathaway. Charlie Munger joined Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway in the 1970s and has since worked as Vice Chairman of the company. Buffett has credited Munger with encouraging him to focus on long-term sustainable growth rather than on simply the valuation of current cash flows or assets.
Another famous value investor is John Templeton. He first achieved investing success by buying shares of a number of companies in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929.
Martin J. Whitman is another well-regarded value investor. His approach is called safe-and-cheap, which was hitherto referred to as financial-integrity approach. Martin Whitman focuses on acquiring common shares of companies with extremely strong financial position at a price reflecting meaningful discount to the estimated NAV of the company concerned. Martin Whitman believes it is ill-advised for investors to pay much attention to the trend of macro-factors (like employment, movement of interest rate, GDP, etc.) not so much because they are not important as because attempts to predict their movement are almost always futile. Martin Whitman's letters to shareholders of his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVF) are considered valuable resources "for investors to pirate good ideas" by another famous investor Joel Greenblatt in his book on special-situation investment "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" (ISBN 0-684-84007-3)(pp 247)
Joel Greenblatt achieved annual returns at the hedge fund Gotham Capital of over 50% per year for 10 years from 1985 to 1995 before closing the fund and returning his investors' money. He is known for investing in special situations such as spin-offs, mergers, and divestitures. Edward Lampert is the chief of ESL Investments. He is best known for buying large stakes in Sears and Kmart and then merging the two companies.
The main proponents of value investing, such as Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, have argued that the essence of value investing is buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value. The discount of the market price to the intrinsic value is what Benjamin Graham called the "margin of safety". The intrinsic value is the discounted value of all future distributions.
However, the future distributions and the appropriate discount rate can only be assumptions. Warren Buffett has taken the value investing concept even further as his thinking has evolved to where for the last 25 years or so his focus has been on "finding an outstanding company at a sensible price" rather than generic companies at a bargain price, this concept is important as you are actually buying into a business.
History
Benjamin Graham
Value investing was established by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, both professors at Columbia University and teachers of many famous investors. In Graham's book The Intelligent Investor, he advocated the important concept of margin of safety — first introduced in Security Analysis, a 1934 book he coauthored with David Dodd — which calls for a cautious approach to investing. In terms of picking stocks, he recommended defensive investment in stocks trading below their tangible book value as a safeguard to adverse future developments often encountered in the stock market.
Further evolution
However, the concept of value (as well as "book value") has evolved significantly since the 1970s. Book value is most useful in industries where most assets are tangible. Intangible assets such as patents, software, brands, or goodwill are difficult to quantify, and may not survive the break-up of a company. When an industry is going through fast technological advancements, the value of its assets is not easily estimated. Sometimes, the production power of an asset can be significantly reduced due to competitive disruptive innovation and therefore its value can suffer permanent impairment. One good example of decreasing asset value is a personal computer. An example of where book value does not mean much is the service and retail sectors. One modern model of calculating value is the discounted cash flow model (DCF). The value of an asset is the sum of its future cash flows, discounted back to the present.
Value Investing Performance
Performance, value strategies
Value investing has proven to be a successful investment strategy. There are several ways to evaluate its success. One way is to examine the performance of simple value strategies, such as buying low PE ratio stocks, low price-to-cash-flow ratio stocks, or low price-to-book ratio stocks. Numerous academics have published studies investigating the effects of buying value stocks. These studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole.
Performance, value investors
Another way to examine the performance of value investing strategies is to examine the investing performance of well-known value investors. Simply examining the performance of the best known value investors would not be instructive, because investors do not become well known unless they are successful. This introduces a selection bias. A better way to investigate the performance of a group of value investors was suggested by Warren Buffett, in his May 17, 1984 speech that was published as The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville. In this speech, Buffett examined the performance of those investors who worked at Graham-Newman Corporation and were thus most influenced by Benjamin Graham. Buffett's conclusion is identical to that of the academic research on simple value investing strategies--value investing is, on average, successful in the long run.
During about a 25-year period (1965-90), published research and articles in leading journals of the value ilk were few. Warren Buffett once commented, "You couldn't advance in a finance department in this country unless you thought that the world was flat."[5]
Well Known Value Investors
Benjamin Graham is regarded by many to be the father of value investing. Along with David Dodd, he wrote Security Analysis, first published in 1934. The most lasting contribution of this book to the field of security analysis was to emphasize the quantifiable aspects of security analysis (such as the evaluations of earnings and book value) while minimizing the importance of more qualitative factors such as the quality of a company's management. Graham later wrote The Intelligent Investor, a book that brought value investing to individual investors. Aside from Buffett, many of Graham's other students, such as William J. Ruane, Irving Kahn and Charles Brandes have gone on to become successful investors in their own right.
Graham's most famous student, however, was Warren Buffett, who ran successful investing partnerships before closing them in 1969 to focus on running Berkshire Hathaway. Charlie Munger joined Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway in the 1970s and has since worked as Vice Chairman of the company. Buffett has credited Munger with encouraging him to focus on long-term sustainable growth rather than on simply the valuation of current cash flows or assets.
Another famous value investor is John Templeton. He first achieved investing success by buying shares of a number of companies in the aftermath of the stock market crash of 1929.
Martin J. Whitman is another well-regarded value investor. His approach is called safe-and-cheap, which was hitherto referred to as financial-integrity approach. Martin Whitman focuses on acquiring common shares of companies with extremely strong financial position at a price reflecting meaningful discount to the estimated NAV of the company concerned. Martin Whitman believes it is ill-advised for investors to pay much attention to the trend of macro-factors (like employment, movement of interest rate, GDP, etc.) not so much because they are not important as because attempts to predict their movement are almost always futile. Martin Whitman's letters to shareholders of his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVF) are considered valuable resources "for investors to pirate good ideas" by another famous investor Joel Greenblatt in his book on special-situation investment "You Can Be a Stock Market Genius" (ISBN 0-684-84007-3)(pp 247)
Joel Greenblatt achieved annual returns at the hedge fund Gotham Capital of over 50% per year for 10 years from 1985 to 1995 before closing the fund and returning his investors' money. He is known for investing in special situations such as spin-offs, mergers, and divestitures. Edward Lampert is the chief of ESL Investments. He is best known for buying large stakes in Sears and Kmart and then merging the two companies.
Market trends
In investing, financial markets are commonly believed to have market trends[1] that can be classified as primary trends, secondary trends (short-term), and secular trends (long-term). This belief is generally consistent with the practice of technical analysis and broadly inconsistent with the standard academic view of financial markets, the efficient market hypothesis.
That market prices do move in trends is one of the major assumptions of technical analysis, and the description of market trends is common to Wall Street.
Market trends are described as periods when bulls (buyers) consistently outnumber bears (sellers), or vice versa. A bull or bear market describes the trend and sentiment driving it, but can also refer to specific securities and sectors ("bullish on IBM", "bullish on technology stocks," or "bearish on gold", etc.).
Primary market trends
Bull market
The Charging Bull in Bowling Green, New York is a symbol of the bull market.
The Charging Bull in Bowling Green, New York is a symbol of the bull market.
A bull market tends to be associated with increasing investor confidence, motivating investors to buy in anticipation of further capital gains. The longest and most famous bull market was in the 1990s when the U.S. and many other global financial markets grew at their fastest pace ever.
In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.
The United States has been described as being in a long-term bull market since about 1983, with brief upsets including the Panic of 1987 and the NASDAQ Crash in 2000.
Bear market
A bear market is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history was 1930 to 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression.[5] A milder, low-level long-term bear market occurred from about 1967 to 1983, encompassing the stagflation economy, energy crises in the 1970s, and high unemployment in the early 1980s.
Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period. However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.
Investors frequently confuse bear markets with corrections. Corrections are much shorter lived, whereas bear markets occur over a longer period with typically a greater magnitude of loss from top to bottom.
Secondary market trends
A secondary trend is a temporary change in price within a primary trend. These usually last a few weeks to a few months. A temporary decrease during a bull market is called a correction; a temporary increase during a bear market is called a bull market rally.
Whether a change is a correction or rally can be determined only with hindsight. When trends begin to appear, market analysts debate whether it is a correction/rally or a new bull/bear market, but it is difficult to tell. A correction sometimes foreshadows a bear market.
Correction
A market correction is sometimes defined as a drop of 10% to 20% (25% on intraday trading) over a short period of time. It differs from a bear market mostly in that it has a smaller magnitude and duration. Because of depressed prices and valuation, market corrections can be a good opportunity for value-strategy investors. If one buys stocks when everyone else is selling, the prices fall and therefore the P/E ratio goes down. Also, one is able to purchase undervalued stocks with a highly probable upside potential.
Bear market rally
A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%.
Notable bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei stock average has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall downward trend.
Secular market trends
A secular market trend is a long-term trend that usually lasts 5 to 25 years, and consists of sequential primary trends. In a secular bull market the bear markets are smaller than the bull markets. Typically, each bear market does not wipe out the gains of the previous bull market, and the next bull market makes up the losses of the bear market. In a secular bear market, the bull markets are smaller than the bear markets and do not wipe out the losses of the previous bear market.
An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold over the period between January 1980 to June 1999, over which the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz to a low of $253/oz,[6] which formed part of the Great Commodities Depression. The S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period.
An example of a secular bull market would be the US Stock market between August 1982 and June 2007. The DJIA, S&P500 and Wilshire 5000 indexes all made new record highs in 2007 with only a single cyclical bear market low in October 2002 after the cyclical bull market high made in March 2000.
These secular bull and bear market trends are also termed "super cycles". "Grand supercycles" of 50 to 300 years have also been proposed by Nikolai Kondratiev and Ralph Nelson Elliott.
That market prices do move in trends is one of the major assumptions of technical analysis, and the description of market trends is common to Wall Street.
Market trends are described as periods when bulls (buyers) consistently outnumber bears (sellers), or vice versa. A bull or bear market describes the trend and sentiment driving it, but can also refer to specific securities and sectors ("bullish on IBM", "bullish on technology stocks," or "bearish on gold", etc.).
Primary market trends
Bull market
The Charging Bull in Bowling Green, New York is a symbol of the bull market.
The Charging Bull in Bowling Green, New York is a symbol of the bull market.
A bull market tends to be associated with increasing investor confidence, motivating investors to buy in anticipation of further capital gains. The longest and most famous bull market was in the 1990s when the U.S. and many other global financial markets grew at their fastest pace ever.
In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.
The United States has been described as being in a long-term bull market since about 1983, with brief upsets including the Panic of 1987 and the NASDAQ Crash in 2000.
Bear market
A bear market is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism. Investors anticipating further losses are motivated to sell, with negative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle. The most famous bear market in history was 1930 to 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression.[5] A milder, low-level long-term bear market occurred from about 1967 to 1983, encompassing the stagflation economy, energy crises in the 1970s, and high unemployment in the early 1980s.
Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market; a bear market is not a simple decline, but a substantial drop in the prices of a range of issues over a defined period of time. By one common definition, a bear market is marked by a price decline of 20% or more in a key stock market index from a recent peak over a 12-month period. However, no consensual definition of a bear market exists to clearly differentiate a primary market trend from a secondary market trend.
Investors frequently confuse bear markets with corrections. Corrections are much shorter lived, whereas bear markets occur over a longer period with typically a greater magnitude of loss from top to bottom.
Secondary market trends
A secondary trend is a temporary change in price within a primary trend. These usually last a few weeks to a few months. A temporary decrease during a bull market is called a correction; a temporary increase during a bear market is called a bull market rally.
Whether a change is a correction or rally can be determined only with hindsight. When trends begin to appear, market analysts debate whether it is a correction/rally or a new bull/bear market, but it is difficult to tell. A correction sometimes foreshadows a bear market.
Correction
A market correction is sometimes defined as a drop of 10% to 20% (25% on intraday trading) over a short period of time. It differs from a bear market mostly in that it has a smaller magnitude and duration. Because of depressed prices and valuation, market corrections can be a good opportunity for value-strategy investors. If one buys stocks when everyone else is selling, the prices fall and therefore the P/E ratio goes down. Also, one is able to purchase undervalued stocks with a highly probable upside potential.
Bear market rally
A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%.
Notable bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei stock average has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall downward trend.
Secular market trends
A secular market trend is a long-term trend that usually lasts 5 to 25 years, and consists of sequential primary trends. In a secular bull market the bear markets are smaller than the bull markets. Typically, each bear market does not wipe out the gains of the previous bull market, and the next bull market makes up the losses of the bear market. In a secular bear market, the bull markets are smaller than the bear markets and do not wipe out the losses of the previous bear market.
An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold over the period between January 1980 to June 1999, over which the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz to a low of $253/oz,[6] which formed part of the Great Commodities Depression. The S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period.
An example of a secular bull market would be the US Stock market between August 1982 and June 2007. The DJIA, S&P500 and Wilshire 5000 indexes all made new record highs in 2007 with only a single cyclical bear market low in October 2002 after the cyclical bull market high made in March 2000.
These secular bull and bear market trends are also termed "super cycles". "Grand supercycles" of 50 to 300 years have also been proposed by Nikolai Kondratiev and Ralph Nelson Elliott.
Investment specific technological progress
nvestment-specific technological progress refers to progress that requires investment in new equipment and structures embodying the latest technology in order to realize its benefits.
Introduction
To model how something is produced, think of a box that in one end takes in inputs such as labor (employees) and capital (equipment, buildings, etc.) and in another end spits out the final good (see Figure 1). With this picture in mind now one can ask, how does technological progress affect production? One way of thinking is that technological progress affects specific inputs (arrows going in) such as equipment and buildings. To realize the benefits of such technological change for production these inputs must be purchased. So for example, the advent of the microchip (an important technological improvement in computers) will affect the production of Ford cars only if Ford Motor Co.'s assembly plants (the red box) invest in computers with microchips (instead of computers with punch cards) and use them (they are one of the arrows going in the box) in the production of Mustangs (the arrow coming out). As the name suggests, this is investment-specific technological progress---it requires investing in new machines or buildings which contain or embody the latest technology. Notice that the term investment can be very general: not only must a firm buy the new technology to reap its benefits, but it also must invest in training its workers and managers to be able to use this new technology (Greenwood & Jovanovic 2001) .
Importance
Identifying investment-specific technological progress is important, because knowing what type of technological progress is operating in an economy will determine how someone (should) want his or her tax dollars to be spent and how he or she may want to invest his or her savings (Gort et al 1999). If "investment-specific" technological change is the main source of progress, then one would want his or her dollars spent on helping firms buy new equipment and renovate their plants, because these investments will improve production and hence what you consume. Furthermore, one may want to help pay for current employee training in using new technologies (to keep them up to date) or subsidize the education of new employees (who will enter the job market knowing how to use the new technology). So, the type of technological progress will also matter for unemployment and education issues. Finally, if technological progress is "investment-specific" you may want to direct your money towards the research and development (R & D) of new technologies (like quantum computers or alternative energy sources) (Krusell 1998).
More generally, why is any type of technological progress important? Technological change has made our lives easier. Because of technological progress, people can work less, make more money and enjoy more leisure time (Greenwood & Vandenbroucke 2006). Women have been able to break away from the traditional "housewife" role, join the labor-force in greater numbers (Greenwood et al 2005) and become less economically dependent on men (Greenwood & Guner 2004). Finally, technological progress has been shown to affect the fall in child labor starting around 1900 (Greenwood & Seshadri 2005). Figure 2 illustrates this last point: as of 1900 child labor's share of the paid labor force began to fall.
A Simple Example: the microwave
An example of investment specific technological progress is the microwave oven. The idea of the microwave came to be by accident: in 1946 an engineer noticed that a candy bar in his pocket had melted while working on something completely unrelated to cooking (Gallawa 2005). The development of this good, from melting the candy bar to the home appliance we know today, took time and the investment of resources to make a microwave small and cheap. The first microwave oven cost between $2000 and $3000 dollars and was housed in refrigerator-sized cabinets (Gallawa 2005)! Today, almost any college student can enjoy a 3-minute microwaveable meal in the smallest dorm room. But a microwave's uses do not stop at the dorm room. Many industries have found microwave heating advantageous: it has been used to dry cork, ceramics, paper, leather, and so on (Gallawa 2005). However, for either college students or firms to reap the benefits of quick warming, they must first "invest" in a microwave (that "embodies" the technological advance). To realize the benefits of investment-specific technological progress you must first invest in a technology that embodies it.
How do you measure investment-specific technological progress?
While measuring technological progress is not easy, economists have found indirect ways of estimating it. If "'investment-specific'" technological progress makes producing goods easier, then we should expect the price of these goods (relative to the price of other goods) to decrease. In particular, "investment-specific" technological change has affected the prices of two inputs into the production process: equipment and structures. We think of equipment as machines (like computers) and structures as buildings. If there is technological progress in the production (or creation) of these goods, then we should expect the price of them to fall or the value of them to rise relative to older versions of the same good.
Conclusion
In the second section it was mentioned that "investment-specific" technological change is important since it will affect production (both in quality and size). An important question then is, just how much "bang for your buck" do you get with "investment-specific" technological change? The answer is quite astounding; economists have found that 37% of growth in US output (production) is due to technological progress in equipment and 15% is due to technological progress in structures (Gort et al 1999) (Greenwood et al 1997). All in all, more than half (37% + 15% = 52%) of the growth of the US economy is due to "investment-specific" technological change (Gort et al 1999) (Greenwood et al 1997).
Introduction
To model how something is produced, think of a box that in one end takes in inputs such as labor (employees) and capital (equipment, buildings, etc.) and in another end spits out the final good (see Figure 1). With this picture in mind now one can ask, how does technological progress affect production? One way of thinking is that technological progress affects specific inputs (arrows going in) such as equipment and buildings. To realize the benefits of such technological change for production these inputs must be purchased. So for example, the advent of the microchip (an important technological improvement in computers) will affect the production of Ford cars only if Ford Motor Co.'s assembly plants (the red box) invest in computers with microchips (instead of computers with punch cards) and use them (they are one of the arrows going in the box) in the production of Mustangs (the arrow coming out). As the name suggests, this is investment-specific technological progress---it requires investing in new machines or buildings which contain or embody the latest technology. Notice that the term investment can be very general: not only must a firm buy the new technology to reap its benefits, but it also must invest in training its workers and managers to be able to use this new technology (Greenwood & Jovanovic 2001) .
Importance
Identifying investment-specific technological progress is important, because knowing what type of technological progress is operating in an economy will determine how someone (should) want his or her tax dollars to be spent and how he or she may want to invest his or her savings (Gort et al 1999). If "investment-specific" technological change is the main source of progress, then one would want his or her dollars spent on helping firms buy new equipment and renovate their plants, because these investments will improve production and hence what you consume. Furthermore, one may want to help pay for current employee training in using new technologies (to keep them up to date) or subsidize the education of new employees (who will enter the job market knowing how to use the new technology). So, the type of technological progress will also matter for unemployment and education issues. Finally, if technological progress is "investment-specific" you may want to direct your money towards the research and development (R & D) of new technologies (like quantum computers or alternative energy sources) (Krusell 1998).
More generally, why is any type of technological progress important? Technological change has made our lives easier. Because of technological progress, people can work less, make more money and enjoy more leisure time (Greenwood & Vandenbroucke 2006). Women have been able to break away from the traditional "housewife" role, join the labor-force in greater numbers (Greenwood et al 2005) and become less economically dependent on men (Greenwood & Guner 2004). Finally, technological progress has been shown to affect the fall in child labor starting around 1900 (Greenwood & Seshadri 2005). Figure 2 illustrates this last point: as of 1900 child labor's share of the paid labor force began to fall.
A Simple Example: the microwave
An example of investment specific technological progress is the microwave oven. The idea of the microwave came to be by accident: in 1946 an engineer noticed that a candy bar in his pocket had melted while working on something completely unrelated to cooking (Gallawa 2005). The development of this good, from melting the candy bar to the home appliance we know today, took time and the investment of resources to make a microwave small and cheap. The first microwave oven cost between $2000 and $3000 dollars and was housed in refrigerator-sized cabinets (Gallawa 2005)! Today, almost any college student can enjoy a 3-minute microwaveable meal in the smallest dorm room. But a microwave's uses do not stop at the dorm room. Many industries have found microwave heating advantageous: it has been used to dry cork, ceramics, paper, leather, and so on (Gallawa 2005). However, for either college students or firms to reap the benefits of quick warming, they must first "invest" in a microwave (that "embodies" the technological advance). To realize the benefits of investment-specific technological progress you must first invest in a technology that embodies it.
How do you measure investment-specific technological progress?
While measuring technological progress is not easy, economists have found indirect ways of estimating it. If "'investment-specific'" technological progress makes producing goods easier, then we should expect the price of these goods (relative to the price of other goods) to decrease. In particular, "investment-specific" technological change has affected the prices of two inputs into the production process: equipment and structures. We think of equipment as machines (like computers) and structures as buildings. If there is technological progress in the production (or creation) of these goods, then we should expect the price of them to fall or the value of them to rise relative to older versions of the same good.
Conclusion
In the second section it was mentioned that "investment-specific" technological change is important since it will affect production (both in quality and size). An important question then is, just how much "bang for your buck" do you get with "investment-specific" technological change? The answer is quite astounding; economists have found that 37% of growth in US output (production) is due to technological progress in equipment and 15% is due to technological progress in structures (Gort et al 1999) (Greenwood et al 1997). All in all, more than half (37% + 15% = 52%) of the growth of the US economy is due to "investment-specific" technological change (Gort et al 1999) (Greenwood et al 1997).
Monday, July 2, 2007
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
Investmen
Every one wanna get the money with investmen, but they don't know what is. read this one
investment Definition 1
In finance, the purchase of a financial product or other item of value with an expectation of favorable future returns. In general terms, investment means the use money in the hope of making more money.
Definition 2
In business, the purchase by a producer of a physical good, such as durable equipment or inventory, in the hope of improving future business.
And choice the right one to invest
investment Definition 1
In finance, the purchase of a financial product or other item of value with an expectation of favorable future returns. In general terms, investment means the use money in the hope of making more money.
Definition 2
In business, the purchase by a producer of a physical good, such as durable equipment or inventory, in the hope of improving future business.
And choice the right one to invest
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